Prediction of variceal hemorrhage by esophageal endoscopy

To assess the risk of variceal bleeding, endoscopic findings in 172 patients with esophageal varices were classified based on the “General Rules for Recording Endoscopic Findings on Esophageal Varices” prepared by the Japanese Research Society for Portal Hypertension. Among the factors which enabled an accurate prediction of bleeding were the red wale marking and cherry-red spot of the red color sign category and blue varices of the fundamental color category with large varices. Other factors in the “General Rules” such as the form and location were of minor significance in prediction of the bleeding. Each of these factors can be quantified and an assessment can be made of the likelihood of bleeding. By calculating the total score of these factors, the risk of bleeding in individual patients was accurately estimated.

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